We investigate how fertility relates to work from home (WFH) in the post-pandemic era, drawing on original data from our Global Survey of Working Arrangements and U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements ...

This paper investigates household preferences over who should work and whether these preferences are malleable. We document that men and women prefer that husbands work over wives. To understand why, ...

Target date funds – which initially invest a large share of retirement savings in stocks and shift gradually towards bonds over the life cycle – are designed to provide a “one stop shop” for ...

We construct a novel dataset linking academic publication records to U.S. Census employer–employee data to track 42,000 AI researchers over two decades. We document systematic changes in the ...

Organized interests are thought to influence policy, but whether and when interest group money overrides public opinion remains poorly understood. We investigate how gun interest group money and ...

However, a party can sustain extremism only if the other side is extreme, too. A small moderation of one side’s voting electorate can trigger a discontinuous collapse of candidate extremism on both ...

Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on prior context. We use these probabilities to construct an entropy-based ...

Population aging is expected to slow U.S. economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of population aging on growth in GDP ...

We analyze a unique data set detailing the financial activities of a drug-selling street gang on a monthly basis over a four-year period in the recent past. The data, originally compiled by the gang ...

This is the monthly household survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure labor force participation and employment. 50-60,000 households per month are queried. Every household that ...

This paper provides a comprehensive introduction to private debt, examines the key drivers behind its expansion, and frames the discussion around potential risk accumulation in the broader economy.