A decrease in oil supply drives up oil prices, which can raise unemployment and inflation. To counter adverse effects on ...

Using data from the euro area SAFE, a novel survey of firms’ inflation expectations including a randomized controlled trial ...

The Center for Pacific Basin Studies (CPBS) organizes the Asia Economic Policy Conference (AEPC) series and the Pacific Basin Research Conference series in alternating years. The AEPC is the flagship ...

Since 1974, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has conducted an active Pacific Basin program to promote cooperation among central banks in the region and enhance public understanding of major ...

San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly explains why the FOMC’s latest policy decision leaves the central bank well positioned to achieve its goals of maximum employment and price stability.

To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

The 2021 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) finds that the COVID-19 pandemic has continued to affect the way U.S. consumers use and hold cash. The share of payments made in cash dropped sharply ...

Global supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic have increased the costs of trade between countries. Given the interconnectedness of the U.S. economy with the rest of the world, higher ...

The link between changes in U.S. inflation and the output gap has weakened in recent decades. Over the same time, a positive link between the level of inflation and the output gap has emerged, ...

At the onset of the pandemic in 2020, US consumers dramatically changed how they purchased goods and services, favoring credit cards by a significant margin and increasing their use of online payments ...

Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have ...